Belief Updating and AI Adoption: Experimental Evidence from Firms

Manuel Menkhoff

No 12291, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Using a large German firm survey, I randomize information on documented AI productivity gains and industry adoption rates and track firms over time. Beliefs about AI’s productivity potential rise significantly after the treatments across the prior distribution without reducing uncertainty. These treatment-induced belief shifts map into behavior: in firms where the respondent has high decision authority, AI adoption is more likely one year later. Information about competitor adoption has direct effects on actions: incumbent adopters cut prices, while not-yet adopters revise business expectations upward. Together, the results highlight the role of expectations, strategic considerations, and informational frictions in shaping technology diffusion and its macroeconomic impact.

Keywords: artificial intelligence; technological change; technology adoption; firm expectations; RCT; belief updating; price-setting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D22 D84 E22 E31 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp12291.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12291

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().