The Impacts of AI at Scale: Evidence from Research Scientists

Zhengyi Yu

No 12462, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: This paper studies the impact of AI on productivity and inequality by focusing on the introduction of AlphaFold2. This AI algorithm can accurately predict protein structures, which were traditionally characterized by structural biologists through experiments. To capture the impact of AI on structural biologists at scale, I implement a difference-in-differences strategy comparing them to life scientists in other fields. While structural biologists did not change their overall number of publications with the availability of AlphaFold2, they experienced a 10% increase in citations to their new projects, a 4% rise in publications in high-impact journals, and a shift from their original research trajectory. However, the emergence of AI intensifies citation polarization between highly cited and less-cited researchers. Consistent with this growing inequality, highly cited scientists are twice as likely to incorporate AlphaFold2 successfully into their research as their less-cited peers. In addition, AI affects the next generation of researchers: the average years of experience of leading authors in protein structure papers increase after the emergence of AI.

Keywords: AI; technology; labor productivity; inequality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D63 J21 J24 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12462

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