Information Framing and Student Decisions: Evidence from an Opportunity Cost Intervention

Lars Behlen, Raphael Brade (), Oliver Himmler and Robert Jäckle

No 12487, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Opportunity costs are central to economic decision-making but often neglected. In a pre-registered experiment with 2,222 German university freshmen, one treatment provides salary information; another additionally frames it as the opportunity cost of delayed graduation. Only the opportunity cost framing causes students to update salary expectations. We find no effect on academic progress but a 2.8 percentage points increase in first-semester dropout (p=0.080), concentrated among high-dropout-probability students (5.9 pp, p=0.025). For these marginal students, dropping out instead of progressing faster is the actionable margin. By semester three, dropout rates converge, suggesting acceleration of eventual exits rather than additional dropouts.

Keywords: natural field experiment; opportunity cost neglect; earnings expectations; academic achievement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C93 D84 D91 I21 I23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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