Graded for Life? Long-Run Impacts of High-Stakes Exam Thresholds

Petri Böckerman, Mika Haapanen, Christopher Jepsen and Hannu Karhunen

No 12532, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We estimate the effect of receiving a higher grade on an academic high school exit exam on labor-market outcomes in adulthood. Identification is based on comparing students on different sides of grade cutoffs. Using nationwide Finnish register data, we find that better grades lead to higher income, although the effects are heterogeneous across the grade distribution. The largest and most precise income gains are concentrated among students in the middle of the grade scale. In contrast, we find little evidence of an income increase for those who barely passed, and the estimates for men with the highest grade are large but imprecise.

Keywords: high school exit exam; regression discontinuity; earnings; income (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I21 I26 J24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12532

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