The Labor Market Impacts of GLP-1s

Meltem N. Daysal, Camille Fredrickson, Ida Lykke Kristiansen, Mircea Trandafir, Jonathan Zhang () and N. Meltem Daysal

No 12810, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We estimate the causal impacts of GLP-1 treatment on labor market outcomes using linked Danish administrative data and a matched stacked difference-in-differences design. We compare patients who initiate GLP-1 treatment during the first two years of Semaglutide availability to observably similar patients who initiate four years later. We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%. We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual. We do not detect statistically significant or economically meaningful impacts on income, labor force participation, or employment over four years.

Keywords: GLP-1; diabetes; obesity; fiscal spillover (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Working Paper: The Labor Market Impacts of GLP-1s (2026)
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