Preferences for the Poorest: New Data and Sectoral Evidence on Non-Reciprocal Trade

Mario Larch and Yoto Yotov

No 13091, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Non-reciprocal preferential trade arrangements (PTAs), such as the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), are the main trade policy instrument for developing countries. Yet, existing data track changes in eligibility only coarsely and evidence on their effects is mixed. We introduce a database of 38 schemes (1950–2025) coding graduations, suspensions, and lapses. Structural gravity analysis finds no significant average effect, and none for beneficiaries other than least developed countries (LDCs). For LDCs, preferences raise exports to grantors by 34 percent, and GSP preferences by 88 percent. These gains concentrate in apparel and footwear and are not captured by tariffs.

Keywords: non-reciprocal trade preferences; generalized system of preferences; least developed countries; graduation; tariffs; structural gravity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F14 F15 O19 O24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13091

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