Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa

Ayhan Kose and Raymond Riezman

No 203, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: This paper examines the role of external shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in African countries. We construct a quantitative, stochastic, dynamic, multi-sector equilibrium model of a small open economy calibrated to represent a typical African economy. In our framework, external shocks consist of trade shocks, modeled a s fluctuations in the prices of exported primary commodities, imported capital goods and intermediate inputs, and a financial shock, modeled as fluctuations in the world real interest rate. Our results indicate that while trade shocks account for roughly 45 percent of economic fluctuations in aggregate output, financial shocks play only a minor role. We also find that adverse trade shocks induce prolonged recessions.

Keywords: Trade shocks; dynamic stochastic quantitative trade model; African economies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo_wp203.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Chapter: Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa (2013)
Journal Article: Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa (2001)
Working Paper: Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa (1999)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_203

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().