Fear of Model Misspecification and the Robustness Premium

Konstantinos Angelopoulos () and Jim Malley

No 3186, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Robust decision making implies welfare costs or robustness premia when the approximating model is the true data generating process. To examine the importance of these premia at the aggregate level we employ a simple two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with human capital and introduce an additional form of precautionary behavior. The latter arises from the robust decision maker’s ability to reduce the effects of model misspecification through allocating time and existing human capital to this end. We find that the extent of the robustness premia critically depends on the productivity of time relative to that of human capital. When the relative efficiency of time is low, despite transitory welfare costs, there are gains from following robust policies in the long-run. In contrast, high relative productivity of time implies misallocation costs that remain even in the long-run. Finally, depending on the technology used to reduce model uncertainty, we find that while increasing the fear of model misspecification leads to a net increase in precautionary behavior, investment and output can fall.

Keywords: robustness premium; model misspecification; precautionary behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Fear of model misspecifcation and the robustness premium (2010)
Working Paper: Fear of model misspecification and the robustness premium (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3186

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