The Dependence Structure between Carbon Emission Allowances and Financial Markets - A Copula Analysis
Marc Gronwald (),
Janina Ketterer and
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Stefan Trueck ()
No 3418, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo
This paper applies different copulas in order to investigate the complex dependence structure between EU emission allowance (EUA) futures returns and those of other commodities, equity and energy indices. The analysis yields important insights into the relationship between carbon, commodities and financial markets. First of all, we find a significant relationship between EUA returns and those of the other considered variables that is most appropriately modeled by a Gaussian and Student-t copula. These results contradict some earlier studies that report no statistically significant or even negative correlations between returns of emission allowances and other financial variables. Secondly, considering time-varying copulas shows that the estimated copula parameters are not constant over time. We find in particular that the dependence is stronger during the period of the financial crisis. In a Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis, finally, we further illustrate the advantages of copula methods. In particular the Student-t copula provides an appropriate quantification of VaR at different confidence levels while other models fail to specify the risk correctly. This analysis shows that ignoring the actual nature of dependence might lead to an underestimation of the risk for portfolios combining EUAs with commodities or equity investments.
Keywords: CO2 emission trading; commodity markets; copula models; dependence structure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C19 G13 Q28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3418
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().