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The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment

Justin Pierce () and Peter Schott ()

No 4563, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: This paper finds a link between the sharp drop in U.S. manufacturing employment beginning in 2001 and a change in U.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries where the threat of tariff hikes declines the most experience more severe employment losses along with larger increases in the value of imports from China and the number of firms engaged in China-U.S. trade. These results are robust to other potential explanations of the employment loss, and we show that the U.S. employment trends differ from those in the EU, where there was no change in policy.

Keywords: manufacturing; trade policy; uncertainty; offshoring; supply chains; employment; China; World Trade Organizations; PNTR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F16 F61 F66 J23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int, nep-lab, nep-lma and nep-tid
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Related works:
Journal Article: The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment (2012) Downloads
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