The Democratic Window of Opportunity: Evidence from Riots in Sub-Saharan Africa

Toke Aidt and Gabriel Leon

No 4884, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We show that drought-induced changes in the intensity of riots lead to moves towards democracy in sub-Saharan Africa, and that these changes are often a result of concessions made as a result of the riots. This provides evidence that low-intensity conflict can have a substantial short-run impact on democratic change, and supports the .window of opportunity. hypothesis: droughts lead to an increase in the threat of conflict, and incumbents often respond by making democratic concessions.

Keywords: riots; drought; transitions; democracy; autocracy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D70 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Working Paper: The Democratic Window of Opportunity: Evidence from Riots in sub-Saharan Africa (2014)
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