Rainy Day Politics - An Instrumental Variables Approach to the Effect of Parties on Political Outcomes

Jo Lind

No 4911, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Rain affects electoral turnout both through a direct effect on the cost of voting and by changing the opportunity cost. In a panel of Norwegian municipalities I find that rain on Election Day increases turnout. As turnout affects electoral outcomes, rain provides an exogeneous source of variation, and hence an instrument, for the party composition of the municipal council. I use this to estimate the causal effect of party composition on politics. I find that an increased share to left wing parties shift spending from education to kindergartens. Beyond this, there are few strong causal effects of political composition.

Keywords: rain; electoral turnout; instrumental variables; economic policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C26 D72 H11 H70 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Rainy day politics. An instrumental variables approach to the effect of parties on political outcomes (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4911

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