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Is Switzerland an Interest Rate Island after all? Time Series and Non-Linear Switching Regime Evidence

Lars Feld () and Ekkehard Köhler

No 5628, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Group Munich

Abstract: Has the “Swiss interest rate anomaly” persisted after the financial crisis? Regarding the hypothesis that the Swiss interest rate anomaly results from systemic risk anticipation, we discuss whether Switzerland remains an interest rate island in the wake of the financial crisis. We find evidence for the demise of the interest rate bonus of the Swiss franc (CHF) vis-à-vis the Euro (EUR) after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) started to advocate an exchange rate floor with the Euro. After the compression of the bonus to insignificant levels, the uncovered interest parity (UIRP) holds again. We find evidence for a recent regime switch after the SNB has discontinued the exchange rate floor with the Euro.

Keywords: uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP); Swiss interest rate anomaly; error correction; heteroscedasticity; Markov regime switching (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E42 E43 F43 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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