Trend and Cycles in U.S. Real GDP

Gebhard Flaig

No 607, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: In this paper an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose U.S. real GDP into trend and cycle components. The main findings are that there exist three cycles with a period of about two, five and 13 years, respectively, and that the long-run development during the last 50 years can be represented by a segmented linear trend with a break in the drift rate in the early seventies. A further result is a remarkable decrease in the volatility of the cycle component and the recursive residuals over the last two decades.

Keywords: trend; cycle; unobserved components models; output gap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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