Decomposition of Demographic Effects on the German Pension System

Robert Fenge and François Peglow

No 6834, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: The paper analyses the impact of demographic developments on the German pension system until the year 2060. The projections are simulated for a range of assumptions on the latest demographic trends and on the labour market and comprise the latest pension legislation. As a central innovation we present a decomposition approach which allows to identify the isolated effects of mortality, fertility and migration developments on the dynamics of the German pension system. We show that the past population structure - driven by past fertility changes - and future mortality improvements will be the most important factors shaping the development of the German pension system. The results have a number of implications for effective and sustainable pension reforms.

Keywords: population ageing; German pension system; labour market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Journal Article: Decomposition of demographic effects on the german pension system (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6834

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