Inference in Structural Vector Autoregressions when the Identifying Assumptions are not Fully Believed: Re-evaluating the Role of Monetary Policy in Economic Fluctuations

Christiane Baumeister and James D. Hamilton

No 7048, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Reporting point estimates and error bands for structural vector autoregressions that are only set identified is a very common practice. However, unless the researcher is persuaded on the basis of prior information that some parameter values are more plausible than others, this common practice has no formal justification. When the role and reliability of prior information is defended, Bayesian posterior probabilities can be used to form an inference that incorporates doubts about the identifying assumptions. We illustrate how prior information can be used about both structural coefficients and the impacts of shocks, and propose a new distribution, which we call the asymmetric t distribution, for incorporating prior beliefs about the signs of equilibrium impacts in a nondogmatic way. We apply these methods to a three-variable macroeconomic model and conclude that monetary policy shocks were not the major driver of output, inflation, or interest rates during the Great Moderation.

Keywords: structural vector autoregressions; set identification; monetary policy; impulse-response functions; historical decompositions; model uncertainty; informative priors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C32 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ets, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (88)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Inference in structural vector autoregressions when the identifying assumptions are not fully believed: Re-evaluating the role of monetary policy in economic fluctuations (2018)
Working Paper: Inference in Structural Vector Autoregressions When the Identifying Assumptions are Not Fully Believed: Re-evaluating the Role of Monetary Policy in Economic Fluctuations (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7048

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