EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

State-Dependent Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

Jan Pablo Burgard, Matthias Neuenkirch () and Matthias Nöckel

No 7074, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Group Munich

Abstract: In this paper, we estimate a logit mixture vector autoregressive (Logit-MVAR) model describing monetary policy transmission in the euro area over the period 1999-2015. MVARs allow us to differentiate between different states of the economy. In our model, the time-varying state weights are determined by an underlying logit model. In contrast to other classes of non-linear VARs, the regime affiliation is neither strictly binary, nor binary with a transition period, and based on multiple variables. We show that monetary policy transmission in the euro area can indeed be described as a mixture of two states. The first (second) state with an overall share of 84% (16%) can be interpreted as a “normal state” (“crisis state”). In both states, output and prices are found to decrease after monetary policy shocks. During “crisis times” the contraction is much stronger, as the peak effect is roughly one-and-a-half times as large when compared to “normal times.” In contrast, the effect of monetary policy shocks is less enduring in crisis times. Both findings provide a strong indication that the transmission mechanism is indeed different for the euro area during times of economic and financial distress.

Keywords: economic and financial crisis; euro area; mixture VAR; monetary policy transmission; state-dependency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-knm, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7074.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: State-Dependent Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area (2016) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7074

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Group Munich Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().

 
Page updated 2019-04-19
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7074