Trade blocs and trade wars during the interwar period

David Jacks and Dennis Novy

No 7665, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: What precisely were the causes and consequences of the trade wars in the 1930s? Were there perhaps deeper forces at work in reorienting global trade prior to the outbreak of World War II? And what lessons may this particular historical episode provide for the present day? To answer these questions, we distinguish between long-run secular trends in the period from 1920 to 1939 related to the formation of trade blocs (in particular, the British Commonwealth) and short-run disruptions associated with the trade wars of the 1930s (in particular, large and widespread declines in bilateral trade, the narrowing of trade imbalances, and sharp drops in average traded distances). We argue that the trade wars mainly served to intensify pre-existing efforts towards the formation of trade blocs which dated from at least 1920. More speculatively, we argue that the trade wars of the present day may serve a similar purpose as those in the 1930s, that is, the intensification of China- and US-centric trade blocs.

Keywords: Commonwealth; distance; gravity; interwar period; trade blocs; trade wars (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F10 F30 N70 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-his and nep-int
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Trade Blocs and Trade Wars during the Interwar Period (2020)
Working Paper: Trade blocs and trade wars during the interwar period (2019)
Working Paper: Trade Blocs and Trade Wars during the Interwar Period (2019)
Working Paper: Trade Blocs and Trade Wars during the Interwar Period (2019)
Working Paper: Trade blocs and trade wars during the interwar period (2019)
Working Paper: Trade Blocs and Trade Wars during the Interwar Period (2019)
Working Paper: Trade Blocs and Trade Wars during the Interwar Period (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7665

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