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Regulation, Financial Crises, and Liberalization Traps

Francesco Marchionne (), Beniamino Pisicali and Michele Fratianni ()

No 7724, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Group Munich

Abstract: To reconcile the mixed empirical results, we develop a theoretical model whose main implication is a concave impact of regulation on the probability of a crisis. We test this relationship by applying a Probit model of a non-linear specification to annual data from 1999 to 2011 drawn from 132 countries. The probability of a financial crisis fits an inverted U-shaped curve: it rises as regulation stringency moves from low to medium levels and falls from medium to high levels. Countries located at the intermediate level of regulatory stringency face more instability than countries that are either loosely or severely regulated. We identify the latter two groups as falling in “liberalization traps”. Institutional quality interacts significantly with the regulatory environment.

Keywords: crisis; banks; institutions; liberalization; regulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G01 G21 G28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban and nep-fdg
Date: 2019
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Working Paper: Regulation, financial crises, and liberalization traps (2017) Downloads
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