EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling

Lutz Kilian ()

No 7902, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a) assert that every critique of their work on oil markets by Kilian and Zhou (2019a) is without merit. In addition, they make the case that key aspects of the economic and econometric analysis in the widely used oil market model of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and its precursors are incorrect. Their critiques are also directed at other researchers who have worked in this area and, more generally, extend to research using structural VAR models outside of energy economics. The purpose of this paper is to help the reader understand what the real issues are in this debate. The focus is not only on correcting important misunderstandings in the recent literature, but on the substantive and methodological insights generated by this exchange, which are of broader interest to applied researchers.

Keywords: oil supply elasticity; oil demand elasticity; IV estimation; structural VAR; Bayesian inference; oil price; global real activity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q43 Q41 C36 C52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7902.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling (2019) Downloads
Working Paper: Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling (2019) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7902

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().

 
Page updated 2020-09-08
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7902