The Effect of Social Distancing Measures on the Demand for Intensive Care: Evidence on Covid-19 in Scandinavia

Steffen Juranek and Floris Zoutman

No 8262, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Understanding the effectiveness of social distancing on the spread of Covid-19 is crucial to justify economically costly social distancing measures. We present a case study focusing on the three Scandinavian countries. Whereas Denmark and Norway imposed relatively strict measures, Sweden follows an extraordinarily lenient approach. We use an event-study approach in which Sweden serves as a counterfactual to Denmark/Norway to estimate the measures’ effectiveness. We estimate that in the counterfactual in which Denmark/Norway implemented Sweden’s more lenient measures the number of hospitalizations would have peaked between around 15-20 days later. The peak number of hospitalizations in Denmark (Norway) would have been 133 (231) percent higher, and the peak number of ICU patients would have increased by 107 (140) percent.

Keywords: Covid-19; social distancing; intensive care; case study (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H12 I12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-hea
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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