Closed-Form Solutions for Optimal Social Distancing in a SIR Model of Covid-19 Suppression

Reyer Gerlagh

No 8335, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: I present a stylized suspected-infected-recovered (SIR) model of Covid-19, with symptomatic versus asymptomatic patients, and social distancing intervention. The optimal suppress strategy has low-infection rates, enabling assumptions that support closed-form solutions. The model predicts high costs of social distancing in comparison to health costs of the disease; it separates public versus private benefits of social distancing, and determines the required level of group immunity for relaxing social distance intervention. I extend the model with heterogeneous population for preferences over social contacts, health costs, and transmission. Heterogeneity in transmission intensity offers most opportunities for reduced costs under a differentiated social distancing policy.

Keywords: Covid-19; SIR model; suppression; (differentiated) social distancing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D62 E17 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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