Where You Export Matters: Measuring Uncertainty in Turkey's Export Markets

Jianchun Fang, Giray Gözgör and Sercan Pekel

No 8404, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Using data from the World Uncertainty, World Trade Uncertainty, and World Pandemic Uncertainty indices for 142 countries, this paper introduces three new indicators for measuring uncertainty in Turkey’s export markets from the first quarter of 1996 to the first quarter of 2020. The indicators measure uncertainty in Turkey’s export destinations. After introducing three indicators of uncertainty for export markets, we investigate their effects on economic growth. We find that all uncertainty indicators are negatively related to economic performance. Specifically, an increase in uncertainty in export destinations leads to a slower growth rate of up to two quarters. Pandemic-induced uncertainty negatively affects economic growth only at the higher quantiles. We also discuss potential implications.

Keywords: export market diversification; economic policy uncertainty; trade policy uncertainty; Covid-19 uncertainties; developing economics; quantile regressions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 D81 F14 F43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp8404.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8404

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().