Measuring Inflation Expectations in Interwar Britain

Jason Lennard, Finn Meinecke and Solomos Solomou

No 9425, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation - the “expectations channel” - suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high-frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in the United Kingdom between the wars. A VAR model suggests that inflation expectations were an important source of the early stages of economic recovery in interwar Britain.

Keywords: policy regime change; economic history; Great Depression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E30 E60 N14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp9425.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain (2023)
Working Paper: Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9425

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().