The Global Economic Impact of Politicians: Evidence from an International Survey RCT

Dorine Boumans, Klaus Gründler (), Niklas Potrafke and Fabian Ruthardt

No 56, EconPol Working Paper from ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Abstract: A large-scale RCT survey of 843 experts in 107 countries examined how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts, including GDP growth, unemployment, inflation and trade in their country. The results show that the election of Joe Biden increased growth expectations of international experts by 0.98 percentage points for the year 2021, that treatment effects materialize only in the short-run and experts’ uncertainty increased after the election. The results suggest that exceptional politicians influence global economic outcomes.

Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Working Paper: The Global Economic Impact of Politicians: Evidence from an International Survey RCT (2021)
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