Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe?

Robert Lehmann

No 196, ifo Working Paper Series from ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Abstract: In this study, we evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses and forecastencompassing tests reveal that survey-based indicators outperform the benchmark model as well as the indicators from hard data for most of the twenty European states focused on in our study and the aggregates EA-18 and EU-28. The most accurate forecasts are on average produced by the confidence indicator in the manufacturing sector, the economic sentiment indicator and the production expectations. However, large country differences in the forecast accuracy of survey-based indicators emerge. These differences are mainly explained by country-specific export compositions. A larger share in raw material or oil exports worsens the accuracy of soft indicators. The accuracy of soft indicators improves if countries have a larger share in exports of machinery goods. For hard indicators, we find only weak evidence for the export composition to explain differences in forecast accuracy.

JEL-codes: F01 F10 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/IfoWorkingPaper-196.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting exports across Europe: What are the superior survey indicators? (2021)
Working Paper: Forecasting Exports across Europe: What Are the Superior Survey Indicators? (2019)
Working Paper: Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe? (2015)
Working Paper: Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe? (2015)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ifowps:_196

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in ifo Working Paper Series from ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe ().