Forecasting Exports across Europe: What Are the Superior Survey Indicators?

Robert Lehmann

No 7846, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: In this study, we systematically evaluate the potential of a bunch of survey-based indicators from different economic branches to forecasting export growth across a multitude of European countries. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses reveal that the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified benchmark model in terms of forecast accuracy. It turns out that four indicators are superior: the Export Climate, the Production Expectations of domestic manufacturing firms, the Industrial Confidence Indicator, and the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Two robustness checks confirm these results. As exports are highly volatile and turn out to be a large demand-side component of gross domestic product, our results can be used by applied forecasters in order to choose the best-performing indicators and thus increasing the accuracy of export forecasts.

Keywords: export forecasting; export expectations; export climate; Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F01 F10 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-for and nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting exports across Europe: What are the superior survey indicators? (2021)
Working Paper: Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe? (2015)
Working Paper: Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe? (2015)
Working Paper: Survey-based indicators vs. hard data: What improves export forecasts in Europe? (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7846

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