The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery

Michael Clemens and Ethan Lewis

No 629, Working Papers from Center for Global Development

Abstract: The US limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to employ more immigrants significantly increase production (elasticity +0.16) with no decrease or an increase in US employment (elasticity +0.10, statistically imprecise) across several pre-registered subsamples. The results imply very low substitutability of native for foreign labor in the policy-relevant occupations. Forensic analysis suggests similarly low substitutability of black-market labor.

JEL-codes: D22 F22 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 92 pages
Date: 2023-01-23
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
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Related works:
Working Paper: The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery (2022)
Working Paper: The effect of low-skill immigration restrictions on US firms and workers: Evidence from a randomized lottery (2022)
Working Paper: The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery (2022)
Working Paper: The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery (2022)
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