The effect of low-skill immigration restrictions on US firms and workers: Evidence from a randomized lottery

Michael Clemens and Ethan Lewis

No 2224, RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series from Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin)

Abstract: The U.S. limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to employ more immigrants significantly increase production (elasticity +0.16) with no decrease or an increase in U.S. employment (elasticity +0.10, statistically imprecise) across several pre-registered subsamples. The results imply very low substitutability of native for foreign labor in the policy-relevant occupations. Forensic analysis suggests similarly low substitutability of black-market labor.

JEL-codes: D22 F22 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-10
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cream-migration.org/publ_uploads/CDP_24_22.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery (2023)
Working Paper: The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery (2022)
Working Paper: The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery (2022)
Working Paper: The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:crm:wpaper:2224

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series from Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Moritz Lubczyk () and Matthew Nibloe ().