Exposición de la Banca en Chile a los Riesgos Financieros relacionados al Clima: Riesgos Físicos y de Transición

Luis Gonzáles and Cristian Rojas

Working Papers Central Bank of Chile from Central Bank of Chile

Abstract: This study shows evidence of the levels of exposure to physical and transition climate risks of the commercial portfolio of Chilean banks. Regarding physical risk, we find that the exposure of commercial loans to economic sectors that are intensive in natural resources is 11%. Using the chain of impact, the most relevant risks manifest in 3% of the portfolio, with a high dispersion between banks. Regarding transition risks, we analyzed the exposure to sudden increases in the carbon tax, changing it from USD 5 to USD 75. We found that 20% of the commercial portfolio is exposed to this risk. However, only 4,9% face a higher risk due to the representativeness of this tax increase either in the company's residual debt or sales level. At a systemic level, we find that 27% of the portfolio is exposed to some degree of climate risk, and 7% is at a high-risk level.

Date: 2025-05
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