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Uso de Análisis Factorial Dinámico para Proyecciones Macroeconómicas

Alvaro Aguirre and Luis Cespedes

Working Papers Central Bank of Chile from Central Bank of Chile

Abstract: In this paper we use the dynamic factor analysis methodology developed by Stock and Watson (1998) in order to forecast inflation and an index of economic activity for the Chilean economy. Our results indicate that using factors in the process of forecasting of these macroeconomic variables improve significantly out of sample forecasts. Additionally, we find that factor augmented Phillips curve forecasts perform better than conventional Phillips curve forecasts based only on output gap measures.

Date: 2004-11
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