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Determinants of Non-Mining Exports: A Regional Perspective

Mabel Cabezas B., Jorge Selaive () and Gonzalo Becerra M.

Working Papers Central Bank of Chile from Central Bank of Chile

Abstract: The Chilean non-mining export sector has experienced a substantial increase over the last years, although exports to the main regions have evolved with different patterns. This work analyzes the role of the real exchange rate and world economic activity during the 1990-2001 period, after performing an extensive refinement and cleaning of export bundles by region. Based on a multivariate cointegration analysis, we find different effects of the real exchange rate and world output on the exported quantum. The long-run elasticity of the real exchange rate goes from 0.2 to 0.8 percent for Europe, Asia and United States, and it is non significant for Aladi countries, for which a lower effect of this latter variable is found as a determinant of regional exports. On the other hand, elasticity with respect to world output ranges between 2.3 and 4 percent for the United States, and between 1.2 and 2 percent for the other regions. A panel analysis supports the view that world output plays a significant role,while the real exchange rate is less important. Finally, our preliminary evidence suggests that foreign country tariff reductions may increase regional exports.

Date: 2004-12
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