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Chilean Nominal Exchange Rate: Forecasting Based Upon Technical Analysis

Ana María Abarca, Felipe Alarcón, Pablo Pincheira () and Jorge Selaive ()

Working Papers Central Bank of Chile from Central Bank of Chile

Abstract: This work presents a review of the main indicators used in the technical analysis of the peso-dollar parity. We explain the interpretations carried out by technical analysts of these indicators and perform forecasting analysis of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to predict exchange rate returns at daily frequency. The predictive exercises are done using both in-sample and out-of-sample techniques, and report a robust forecasting ability for horizons within 7 weeks.

Date: 2007-08
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