Utilización de noticias de prensa como indicador de confianza económica en tiempo real

María del Pilar Cruz N., Hugo Peralta V. and Juan Pablo Cova M.

Working Papers Central Bank of Chile from Central Bank of Chile

Abstract: Through the application of textual border analysis tools, this work presents the construction of a high-frequency indicator, generated in real time, based on the computerized reading of the news from the main print media from January 2015 to December 2020 in Chile. This indicator captures the emotional tone of economic and opinion news by making use of an extensive —and novel— purpose-built dictionary in Spanish. This lexicon of words was subjected to challenging statistical tests of robustness, complemented by tests of predictive precision. The latter were carried out by comparing the degree of similarity between a classification by automated means and another by manual means in a random sample. The economic application shows that the constructed indicator has a high correlation with confidence indicators based on surveys, and a high predictive capacity in the face of shock phenomena hitting the economy.

Date: 2022-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_938.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:chb:bcchwp:938

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers Central Bank of Chile from Central Bank of Chile Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Alvaro Castillo ().