Working Papers Central Bank of Chile

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649: The Risk of Civil Conflicts as a Determinant of Political Institutions

Alvaro Aguirre

648: Propagation of Shocks to Food and Energy Prices: an International Comparison

Michael Pedersen

647: Incertidumbre Global sobre la Economía Chilena

Yan Carrière–Swallow and Carlos A. Medel

646: The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in Emerging Economies

Yan Carrière–Swallow and Luis Cespedes

645: Crédito, Exceso de toma de Riesgo, Costo de Crédito y ciclo Económico en Chile

Carlos García and Andres Sagner

644: Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with Limited Commitment

Sofia Bauducco and Francesco Caprioli

643: Contracting Institutions and Economic Growth

Alvaro Aguirre

642: Dinámica de Precios en Chile: Evidencia con datos de Supermercados

Gaston Chaumont, Miguel Fuentes, Felipe Labbé and Alberto Naudon

641: A Reassessment of Flexible Price Evidence Using Scanner Data: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

Gaston Chaumont, Miguel Fuentes, Felipe Labbé and Alberto Naudon

640: Copper, the Real Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Chile

Jose De Gregorio and Felipe Labbé

639: Credit Contraction and International Trade: Evidence from Chilean Exporters

Ari Aisen, Roberto Alvarez, Andres Sagner and Javier Turen

638: Investment Dynamics in a DSGE Model with Heterogeneous Firms and Corporate Taxation

Sergio Salgado I.

637: Labor Market Dyncamics in Chile: the Role of Terms of Trade Shocks

Juan Medina and Alberto Naudon

636: Distribución de la Riqueza, Capital Social y Tasa de Crecimiento

Pablo Filippi

635: Time - Consistent Bailout Plans

Ernesto Pasten

634: Proyecciones de Inflación con Precios de Frecuencia Mixta: el caso Chileno

Juan Becerra and Carlos Saavedra

633: Long – Term Interest Rate and Fiscal Policy

Eduardo López E., Victor Riquelme and Ercio Muñoz S.

632: Computing Population Weights for the EFH Survey

Carlos Madeira

631: Aplicaciones del Modelo Binomial para el Análisis de Riesgo

Rodrigo Alfaro, Andres Sagner and Carmen G. Silva

630: Jaque Mate a las Proyecciones de Consenso

Pablo Pincheira and Nicolás Fernández

629: Risk Premium and Expectations in Higher Education

Gonzalo Castex

628: Fiscal Multipliers and Policy Coordination

Gauti Eggertsson

627: Chile’s Fiscal Rule as Social Insurance

Eduardo Engel, Christopher Neilson and Rodrigo Valdés

626: Short-Term GDP Forecasting Using Bridge Models: a Case for Chile

Marcus Cobb, Gonzalo Echavarría, Pablo Filippi, Macarena García, Carolina Godoy, Wildo Gonzalez P., Carlos A. Medel and Marcela Urrutia

625: Introducing Financial Assets into Structural Models

Jorge Fornero

624: Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Emerging Countries: the Cycle is the Trend

Michel Strawczynski and Joseph Zeira

623: Taxes and the Labor Market

Tommaso Monacelli, Roberto Perotti and Antonella Trigari

622: Valorización de Fondos Mutuos Monetarios y su Impacto sobre Estabilidad Financiera

Luis Antonio Ahumada, Nicolás Álvarez and Diego Saravia

621: Sobre el nivel de reservas internacionales de Chile: análisis a partir de enfoques complementarios

Gabriela Contreras, Alejandro Jara, Eduardo Olaberria and Diego Saravia

620: Un Test Conjunto de Superioridad Predictiva para los Pronósticos de Inflación Chilena

Pablo Pincheira

619: The Optimal Inflation Tax in the Presence of Imperfect Deposit – Currency Substitution

Eduardo Olaberria

618: El Índice Cartera Vencida como Medida de Riesgo de Crédito: Análisis y Aplicación al Caso de Chile

Andres Sagner

617: Estimación del Premio por Riesgo en Chile

Francisca Lira and Claudia Sotz

616: Uso de la Aproximación TIR/Duración en la Estructura de Tasas: Resultados Cuantitativos Bajo Nelson - Siegel

Rodrigo Alfaro and Juan Becerra

615: Chilean Export Performance: the Rol of Intensive and Extensive Margins

Matias Berthelon

614: Does linearity in the dynamics of inflation gap and unemployment rate matter?

Roque Montero

613: Modeling Copper Price: A Regime-Switching Approach

Javier García-Cicco and Roque Montero

612: Tightening Tensions: Fiscal Policy and Civil Unrest in Eleven South American Countries, 1937 - 1995

Hans-Joachim Voth

611: Seigniorage and Distortionary Taxation in a Model with Heterogeneous Agents and Idiosyncratic Uncertainty

Sofia Bauducco

610: Stress Tests for Banking Sector: A Technical Note

Rodrigo Alfaro and Andres Sagner

609: Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resources Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean

Mauricio Villafuerte, Pablo López-Murphy and Rolando Ossowski

608: Floats, Pegs and the Transmission of Fiscal Policy

Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester and Gernot Müller

607: A Bunch of Models, a Bunch of Nulls and Inference About Predictive Ability

Pablo Pincheira

606: College Risk and Return

Gonzalo Castex

605: Determinants of Export Diversificationaround the World: 1962 - 2000

Manuel Agosin, Roberto Alvarez and Claudio Bravo-Ortega

604: A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: the Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile

Jeffrey Frankel

603: Eficiencia Bancaria en Chile: un Enfoque de Frontera de Beneficios

José Luis Carreño, Gino Loyola and Yolanda Portilla

602: Chile’s Structural Fiscal Surplus Rule: a Model – Based Evaluation

Michael Kumhof and Douglas Laxton

601: Price Level Targeting and Inflation Targeting: a Review

Sofia Bauducco and Rodrigo Caputo

600: Vulnerability, Crisis and Debt Maturity: do IMF Interventions Shorten the Length of Borrowing?

Diego Saravia