Working Papers Central Bank of Chile

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679: Does BIC Estimate and Forecast Better Than AIC?

Carlos A. Medel and Sergio Salgado Ibáñez

678: Spillovers of the Credit Default Swap Market

Mauricio Calani

677: Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: a Cross-Country Analysis

Pablo Pincheira and Carlos A. Medel

676: Capital Debt -and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes

Kristin Forbes and Francis Warnock

675: Capital Inflows and Booms in Assets Prices: Evidence From a Panel of Countries

Eduardo Olaberria

674: Evaluation of Short Run Inflation Forecasts in Chile

Pablo Pincheira and Roberto Alvarez

673: Tasa Máxima Convencional y Oferta de Créditos

Rodrigo Alfaro, Andres Sagner and Camilo Vio

672: Pegs, Downward Wage Rigidity, and Unemployment: the Role of Financial Structure

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martín Uribe

671: Adapting Macropudential Policies to Global Liquidity Conditions

Hyun Song Shin

670: An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise

Enrique Mendoza and Marco Terrones

669: Forecasting Inflation With a Random Walk

Pablo Pincheira and Carlos A. Medel

668: On the International Transmission of Shocks: Micro – Evidence From Mutual Fund Portfolios

Claudio Raddatz and Sergio Schmukler

667: Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes

Carlos Madeira and Basit Zafar

666: Financial Development, Exporting and Firm Heterogeneity in Chile

Roberto Alvarez and Ricardo López Rago

665: Determinantes e Impacto de Episodios de Reversión Abrupta de Flujos de Capitales: ¿Es Distinto un Sudden Stop de un Sudden Flight?

Gabriela Contreras, Alfredo Pistelli and Mariel Siravegna

664: Rational Inattention, Multi-Product Firms and the Neutrality of Money

Ernesto Pasten

663: Non-Ricardian Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Chile

Luis Cespedes, Jorge Fornero and Jordi Galí

662: Cubrir o no Cubrir: ¿Ese es el Dilema?

Rodrigo Alfaro and Natán Goldberger

661: Are Forecast Combinations Efficient?

Pablo Pincheira

660: Combinación de Proyecciones para el Precio del Petróleo: Aplicación y Evaluación de Metodologías

Ercio Muñoz Saavedra, Miguel Ricaurte and Mariel Siravegna

659: Dinámica Laboral en Chile

Macarena García and Alberto Naudon

658: ¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál elegir para Predecir el PIB Chileno?

Carlos A. Medel

657: How Informative are In–Sample Information Criteria to Forecasting? The Case of Chilean GDP

Carlos A. Medel

656: Indicadores Sintéticos para la Proyección de Imacec en Chile

Gonzalo Calvo and Miguel Ricaurte

655: Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate: a Cross - Country Perspective

Rodrigo Caputo and Miguel Fuentes

654: Tasas de Crédito Ajustadas por Riesgo e Implicancias para Políticas de Tasa Máxima Convencional

Carlos Madeira

653: Un Gran VAR Bayesiano para la Economía Chilena

Wildo Gonzalez P.

652: Capital Controls and Foreign Exchange Policy

Marcel Fratzscher

651: Policy Implications of Using Audits to Detect Bank Insolvencies

Jaime Hurtubia and Claudio Sardoni

650: Self – Employment, Labor Market Rigidities and Unemployment Over the Business Cycle

Gonzalo Castex and Miguel Ricaurte

649: The Risk of Civil Conflicts as a Determinant of Political Institutions

Alvaro Aguirre

648: Propagation of Shocks to Food and Energy Prices: an International Comparison

Michael Pedersen

647: Incertidumbre Global sobre la Economía Chilena

Yan Carrière–Swallow and Carlos A. Medel

646: The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in Emerging Economies

Yan Carrière–Swallow and Luis Cespedes

645: Crédito, Exceso de toma de Riesgo, Costo de Crédito y ciclo Económico en Chile

Carlos García and Andres Sagner

644: Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with Limited Commitment

Sofia Bauducco and Francesco Caprioli

643: Contracting Institutions and Economic Growth

Alvaro Aguirre

642: Dinámica de Precios en Chile: Evidencia con datos de Supermercados

Gaston Chaumont, Miguel Fuentes, Felipe Labbé and Alberto Naudon

641: A Reassessment of Flexible Price Evidence Using Scanner Data: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

Gaston Chaumont, Miguel Fuentes, Felipe Labbé and Alberto Naudon

640: Copper, the Real Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Chile

Jose De Gregorio and Felipe Labbé

639: Credit Contraction and International Trade: Evidence from Chilean Exporters

Ari Aisen, Roberto Alvarez, Andres Sagner and Javier Turen

638: Investment Dynamics in a DSGE Model with Heterogeneous Firms and Corporate Taxation

Sergio Salgado I.

637: Labor Market Dyncamics in Chile: the Role of Terms of Trade Shocks

Juan Medina and Alberto Naudon

636: Distribución de la Riqueza, Capital Social y Tasa de Crecimiento

Pablo Filippi

635: Time - Consistent Bailout Plans

Ernesto Pasten

634: Proyecciones de Inflación con Precios de Frecuencia Mixta: el caso Chileno

Juan Becerra and Carlos Saavedra

633: Long – Term Interest Rate and Fiscal Policy

Eduardo López E., Victor Riquelme and Ercio Muñoz S.

632: Computing Population Weights for the EFH Survey

Carlos Madeira

631: Aplicaciones del Modelo Binomial para el Análisis de Riesgo

Rodrigo Alfaro, Andres Sagner and Carmen G. Silva

630: Jaque Mate a las Proyecciones de Consenso

Pablo Pincheira and Nicolás Fernández