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Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia

Barry R. Bloom, David Canning and Pia Malaney

No 15A, CID Working Papers from Center for International Development at Harvard University

Abstract: This paper examines the links between demographic change and economic growth in Asia during 1965-90. We show that the overall rate of population growth had little effect on economic growth, but that changes in life expectancy, age structure, and population density have had a significant impact on growth rates. We also find strong evidence of feedback from higher income to population change via lower fertility, though a significant component of the demographic changes appears to have been exogenous. Our results suggest that the demographic transition can act both as a catalyst and as an accelerator mechanism, and that demographic effects can explain most of East Asia’s economic "miracle". East Asia benefited from a "virtuous spiral" of income growth and fertility decline, while South Asia seems to remain caught in a low-level population-income trap.

Keywords: population; fertility; economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J10 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999-05
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

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https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/ce ... rking-papers/015.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia (2008) Downloads
Working Paper: Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia (1999) Downloads
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