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Risk Shocks and Divergence between the Euro Area and the US in the aftermath of the Great Recession

Thomas Brand and Fabien Tripier ()

Working Papers from CEPII research center

Abstract: Highly synchronized during the Great Recession of 2008-2009, the Euro area and the US have diverged in the period that followed. To explain this divergence, we provide a structural interpretation of these episodes through the estimation for both economies of a business cycle model with ?nancial frictions and risk shocks, measured as the volatility of idiosyncratic uncertainty in the ?nancial sector. Our results show that risk shocks have stimulated US growth in the aftermath of the Great Recession and have been the main driver of the double-dip recession in the Euro area. They play a positive role in the Euro area only after 2015. Risk shocks therefore seem well suited to account for the consequences of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the subsequent positive e?ects of unconventional monetary policies, notably the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme (APP).

Keywords: Great recession; Business cycles; Uncertainty; Risk Shocks; Divergence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 E4 G3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-rmg
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cii:cepidt:2021-04

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