A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay

Pablo Galaso and Sandra Rodríguez
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Sandra Rodríguez: Universidad de la República
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Sandra Rodríguez and Sandra Rodríguez A.

No 31, Estudios Regionales en Economía, Población y Desarrollo. Cuadernos de Trabajo de la Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez. from Cuerpo Académico 41 de la Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez

Abstract: This study estimates a composite leading business cycle indicator for the Uruguayan economy following the methodology of The Conference Board. Prediction is based on the analysis of multiple series that have a leading relationship to the Industrial Production Index, which is used as the reference variable of the overall economic activity. Once selected, these series are aggregated into a single composite indicator. Our index covers a 20-year period (from 1994 to 2013). It includes variables covering diverse aspects of economic activity and reaches to advance the two turning points occurred in Uruguay during that period.

Keywords: leading indicator; business cycle; turning points; Uruguay. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: pages 33
Date: 2016-02-01, Revised 2016-02-01
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Working Paper: A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay (2014)
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