A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay

Pablo Galaso and Sandra Rodriguez ()
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Sandra Rodriguez: Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economí­a
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Sandra Rodríguez A. and Sandra Rodríguez

No 14-09, Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) from Instituto de Economía - IECON

Abstract: This study estimates a composite leading business cycle indicator for the Uruguayan economy following the methodology of The Conference Board. Prediction is based on the analysis of multiple series that have a leading relationship to the Industrial Production Index, which is used as the reference variable of the overall economic activity. Once selected, these series are aggregated into a single composite indicator. Our index covers a 20-year period (from 1994 to 2013). It includes variables covering diverse aspects of economic activity and reaches to advance the two turning points occurred in Uruguay during that period.

Keywords: leading indicator; business cycle; turning points; Uruguay (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2014-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/4253

Related works:
Working Paper: A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-09-14

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