When Is The Best Time To Give Birth - Career Effects Of Early Birth Decisions

Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, Andrea Weber, Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia and Christoph Pamminger

No 10132, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Using Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis we investigate career paths of Austrian women after their first birth. This data-driven method allows characterizing long-term career paths of mothers over up to 19 years by transitions between parental leave, non-employment and different forms of employment. We, thus, classify women into five cluster-groups with very different long-run career costs of childbearing. We model group membership with a multinomial specification within the finite mixture model. This approach gives insights into the determinants of the long-run family gap. Giving birth late in life may lead very diverse outcomes: on the one hand, it increases the odds to drop out of labor force, and on the other hand, it increases the odds to reach a high-wage career track.

Keywords: Family gap; Fertility; Markov chain monte carlo; Multinomial logit; Panel data; Timing of birth; Transition data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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