Identifying Gazelles: Expert Panels vs. Surveys as a Means to Identify Firms with Rapid Growth Potential

Marcel Fafchamps and Christopher Woodruff

No 10597, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We conduct a business plan competition to test whether survey instruments or panel judges are able to identify the fastest growing firms. Participants submitted six- to eight-page business plans and defended them before a three- or four-judge panel. We surveyed applicants shortly after they applied, and one and two years after the competition. We use follow-up surveys to construct measures of enterprise growth potential. We find that a measure of ability correlates strongly with future growth, but that panel scores add to predictive power even after controlling for ability and other survey variables. The survey questions have more power to explain the variance in growth. Participants presenting before the panel were given a chance to win customized management training. Fourteen months after the training, we find no positive effect of the training on growth of the business.

Keywords: Business plan competitions; Firm growth; High growth entrepreneurship (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J24 L26 O1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-ent and nep-sbm
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Identifying Gazelles: Expert Panels vs. Surveys as a Means to Identify Firms with Rapid Growth Potential (2017)
Working Paper: Identifying gazelles: expert panels vs. surveys as a means to identify firms with rapid growth potential (2016)
Working Paper: Identifying gazelles: expert panels vs. surveys as a means to identify firms with rapid growth potential (2014)
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