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Flooded Cities

Kocornik-Mina, Adriana, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch ()

No 11010, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Does economic activity relocate away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which are among the costliest and most common natural disasters. Over the past thirty years, floods worldwide killed more than 500,000 people and displaced over 650,000,000 people. This paper analyzes the effect of large scale floods, which displaced at least 100,000 people each, in over 1,800 cities in 40 countries, from 2003-2008. We conduct our analysis using spatially detailed inundation maps and night lights data spanning the globe's urban areas. We find that low elevation areas are about 3-4 times more likely to be hit by large floods than other areas, and yet they concentrate more economic activity per square kilometer. When cities are hit by large floods, the low elevation areas also sustain more damage, but like the rest of the flooded cities they recover rapidly, and economic activity does not move to safer areas. Only in more recently populated urban areas, flooded areas show a larger and more persistent decline in economic activity. Our findings have important policy implications for aid, development and urban planning in a world with rising urbanization and sea levels.

Keywords: climate change; flooding; urban recovery; urbanization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q54 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ure
Date: 2015-12
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Related works:
Working Paper: Flooded Cities (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: Flooded Cities (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Flooded cities (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Flooded cities (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Flooded Cities (2015) Downloads
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