Identification and Inference in Regression Discontinuity Designs with a Manipulated Running Variable

Francois Gerard, Miikka Rokkanen () and Christoph Rothe

No 11048, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: A key assumption in regression discontinuity analysis is that units cannot manipulate the value of their running variable in a way that guarantees or avoids assignment to the treatment. Standard identification arguments break down if this condition is violated. This paper shows that treatment effects remain partially identified in this case. We derive sharp bounds on the treatment effects, show how to estimate them, and propose ways to construct valid confidence intervals. Our results apply to both sharp and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs. We illustrate our methods by studying the effect of unemployment insurance on unemployment duration in Brazil, where we find strong evidence of manipulation at eligibility cutoffs.

Keywords: Bounds; Manipulation; Regression discontinuity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (26)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP11048 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Working Paper: Identification and Inference in Regression Discontinuity Designs with a Manipulated Running Variable (2015)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11048

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP11048

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().