Melting Ice Caps and the Economic Impact of Opening the Northern Sea Route
Eddy Bekkers (),
Joseph Francois and
Hugo Rojas-Romagosa ()
No 11670, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
One consequence of melting Arctic ice caps is the commercial viability of the Northern Sea Route, connecting East Asia with Europe. This represents a sizeable reduction in shipping distances and average transportation days, compared to the conventional Southern Sea Route. We examine the economic impact of opening this route in a multi-sector Eaton-Kortum model with intermediate linkages. We find remarkable shifts in trade flows between Asia and Europe, diversion of trade within Europe, heavy shipping traffic in the Arctic and a substantial drop in Suez traffic. Projected shifts in trade also imply substantial pressure on an already threatened Arctic ecosystem.
Keywords: gravity model; Northern Sea Route; quantitative trade models; trade and emissions; trade forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C2 D58 F17 F18 R4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-tre
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org
Working Paper: Melting Ice Caps and the Economic Impact of Opening the Northern Sea Route (2015)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11670
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.cepr.org/ ... rs/dp.php?dpno=11670
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
Bibliographic data for series maintained by (). This e-mail address is bad, please contact .