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Polls, the Press, and Political Participation: The Effects of Anticipated Election Closeness on Voter Turnout

Leonardo Bursztyn, Davide Cantoni, Patricia Funk () and Noam Yuchtman

No 12088, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We exploit naturally occurring variation in the existence, closeness, and dissemination of pre-election polls to identify a causal effect of anticipated election closeness on voter turnout in Swiss referenda. Closer elections are associated with greater turnout only when polls exist. Examining within-election variation in newspaper reporting on polls across cantons, we find that close polls increase turnout significantly more where newspapers report on them most. This holds examining only "incidental" exposure to coverage by periodicals whose largest audience is elsewhere. The introduction of polls had larger effects in politically unrepresentative municipalities, where locally available information differs most from national polls.

Keywords: media; polls; Voter turnout (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-eur and nep-pol
Date: 2017-06
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Working Paper: Polls, the Press, and Political Participation: The Effects of Anticipated Election Closeness on Voter Turnout (2017) Downloads
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