EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The Economic Consequences of the Brexit Vote

Benjamin Born, M�ller, Gernot, Moritz Schularick and Petr Sedlacek ()
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gernot J. Müller

No 12454, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper introduces a data-driven, transparent and unbiased method to calculate the economic costs of the Brexit vote in June 2016. We let a matching algorithm determine a combination of comparison economies that best resembles the growth path of the UK economy before the Brexit referendum. The economic cost of the Brexit vote is the difference in output between the UK economy and and its synthetic doppelganger. We show that, contrary to public perception, by the third quarter of 2017 the economic costs of the Brexit vote are already 1.3% of GDP. The cumulative costs amount to almost 20 billion pounds and are expected to grow to more than 60 billion pounds by end-2018. We provide evidence that heightened policy uncertainty has already taken a toll on investment and consumption.

Keywords: Brexit; European Union; policy uncertainty; synthetic control method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E65 F13 F42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Date: 2017-11
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=12454 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Working Paper: The Economic Consequences of the Brexit Vote (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: The economic consequences of the Brexit Vote (2017) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12454

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.cepr.org/ ... rs/dp.php?dpno=12454

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().

 
Page updated 2019-04-16
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12454