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Learning from Noise: Evidence from India's IPO Lotteries

Santosh Anagol, Vimal Balasubramaniam () and Tarun Ramadorai ()

No 13314, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We study a natural experiment in which 1.5 million investors participate in allocation lotteries for Indian IPO stocks. Randomized IPO gains cause winning investors to increase applications to future IPOs and substantially increase portfolio trading volume in non-IPO stocks relative to lottery losers; the effects are symmetrically negative for experienced losses. Investors who have received multiple past IPO allocations show smaller responses, suggesting learning/selection moderates responses to noise shocks. The evidence is most consistent with investors learning about their own ability from experienced noise, drawing inferences about their skill from luck.

Keywords: causal inference; experience; India; investment; learning; lotteries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C9 D83 G12 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cfn
Date: 2018-11
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