Taylor Rules and Forward Guidance: A Rule is not a Path

John Taylor

No 13383, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We study the impact of forward guidance--non-systematic announcements about future policy rates -- in a stylized new Keynesian model. Using novel closed-form solutions, we show that the impact of forward guidance depends critically on the systematic monetary policy rule, ranging from non-existing to unrealistically large, the so-called forward guidance puzzle. We demonstrate that the puzzle occurs only under relatively passive -- empirically implausible and socially suboptimal -- policy rules, while more active empirically-relevant Taylor rules lead to sensible implications. Our analysis encompasses the case of a fixed interest-rate path, which characterizes effective lower-bound (ELB) periods. We conclude that it is not ELB per se that produces backward explosion but the passivity of monetary policy rules.

Keywords: Forward guidance; New keynesian model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 C63 C68 E31 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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