The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict
Sweder van Wijnbergen,
Wilko Bolt and
Kostas(Konstantinos) Mavromatis
No 13495, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
Abstract:
We study the global macroeconomic effects of tariffs using a multiregional, general equilibrium model, EAGLE, that we extend by introducing US tariffs against Chinese imports into the US, and subsequently Chinese tariffs against US imports into China, consistent with recent trade policies by the US and the Chinese governments. We abstract from tariffs on goods exported from the euro area, focusing on a US-China trade war. A unilateral tariff from the US against China dampens US exports in line with the Lerner Symmetry theorem but global output contracts. Global output contracts even further after China retaliates. The euro area benefits from this trade war. These European trade diversion benefits are caused by cheaper imports from China and improved competitiveness in the US. As price stickiness in the export sector in each region increases, the negative effects of tariffs in the US and China are mitigated, but the positive effects in the euro area are then also dampened.
Keywords: Trade policy; Exchange rates; Trade diversion; Local currency pricing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F30 H22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)
Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP13495 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
Related works:
Working Paper: The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13495
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP13495
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().