Exchange Rate Undershooting: Evidence and Theory
Gernot Müller and
Martin Wolf ()
No 13597, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
We run local projections to estimate the effect of US monetary policy shocks on the dollar. We find that monetary contractions appreciate the dollar and establish two results. First, the spot exchange rate undershoots: the appreciation is smaller on impact than in the longer run. Second, forward exchange rates also appreciate on impact, but their response is flat across tenors. Next, we develop and estimate a New Keynesian model with information frictions. In the model, investors do not observe the natural rate of interest directly. As a result, they learn only over time whether an interest rate surprise represents a monetary contraction. The model accurately predicts the joint dynamics of spot and forward exchange rates following a monetary contraction.
Keywords: Forward Exchange Rate; Forward premium puzzle; information effect; Information Frictions; monetary policy; Spot Exchange Rate; UIP puzzle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-opm
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13597
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.cepr.org/ ... rs/dp.php?dpno=13597
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().